Jeffrey Payne LA Realtor » Pending Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Rose 0.5% in July

Pending Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Rose 0.5% in July

Jeffrey Payne — Fri, 04 Sep 2015 20:53:28 +0000

by Michelle Jamrisko, Bloomberg
August 27, 2015

> Gauge of Northeast pending sales strongest since February 2007
> Pending purchases of existing homes rose 7.2% from year ago

Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes climbed in July for the sixth time in the last seven months, signaling further momentum in residential real estate.

The pending home sales index increased 0.5 percent after a revised 1.7 percent decline in June, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for the index to rise 1 percent.

Consistent employment growth and still-cheap borrowing costs are bolstering household balance sheets, helping Americans feel more comfortable about signing for big purchases. A bigger pickup in worker pay, alongside a tightening rental market, could provide more of a boost to housing through the end of the year.

“Whether wages are accelerating quickly or not, certainly payrolls are, and that helps,” Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York, said before the report. “We might not see the rapid rises that we saw earlier this year, but we should still see gains.”

Economists’ Estimates
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Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 40 economists forecasting pending home sales ranged from a decline of 2 percent to an advance of 4.5 percent. The Realtors’ group revised the June data, which originally showed a 1.8 percent drop.

Purchase contracts increased 7.2 percent in the 12 months ended in July after an 11.1 percent annual advance in June on an unadjusted basis, the NAR report showed.

The pending sales index was 110.9 on a seasonally adjusted basis. A reading of 100 corresponds to the average level of contract activity in 2001, or “historically healthy” home-buying traffic, according to the NAR.

By Region

Pending sales rose in two of four regions, increasing 4 percent in the Northeast and 0.6 percent in the South. Purchase contracts fell 1.4 percent in the West and were little changed in the Midwest.

“The prospects for ongoing strength in the housing market remain intact for now,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “The U.S. economy is growing — albeit at a modest pace — and the labor market continues to add jobs.”

Economists consider pending sales a leading indicator because they track new purchase contracts. Existing-home sales are tabulated when a deal closes, usually a month or two later.

Those re-sales make up about 90 percent of the market and climbed in July for a third month to reach the highest level since February 2007, NAR reported last week. The gain was driven by stronger sales of single-family houses even as the share of first-time buyers shrank.

Home prices rise in L.A. and O.C., Case-Shiller says

Jeffrey Payne — Thu, 02 Jul 2015 23:46:07 +0000

A home for sale recently in Huntington Beach

By Andrew Khouri, LA Times, June 30, 2015

Home prices in Los Angeles and Orange counties rose 6.1% in April, according to a closely tracked gauge released Tuesday.

The 12-month gain from April 2014 was larger than a 4.2% pop seen nationally, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index showed.

The housing market has seen signs of improvement recently, with sales up both nationally and in Southern California. Economists and real estate agents say an improved job market is boosting demand, as is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise its short-term interest rate later this year.
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Agents say the expected rate hike is pushing families to buy now to lock in low rates.

In May, Southern California home sales rose 5% from a year earlier, while the median price ticked up 2.2%, according to CoreLogic.

The Case-Shiller numbers out Tuesday lag behind other indicators such as CoreLogic’s, but they are widely considered the most reliable reading on home values.

The index, created by economists Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller, compares the latest sales of detached houses with previous sales and accounts for factors such as remodeling.

Coldwell Banker Luxury Market Report

Jeffrey Payne — Tue, 26 May 2015 00:31:44 +0000

The inaugural 2015 Luxury Market Report from the Coldwell Banker Previews International® program offers a micro and macro look at today’s luxury residential real estate landscape. Click on the following link to access the report:

Coldwell Banker Previews International Luxury Market Report Spring 2015

Here is a snapshot of what you’ll find in the report:

Top 20 U.S. Cities for Luxury Home Listings and Sale

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Market Spotlights: Manhattan Beach, New York and Spain

Southern California’s Manhattan Beach is experiencing a surge, while New York’s Manhattan is in the midst of a construction boom. In Spain, real estate prices have appeared to stabilize after six years.

Luxury’s New Frontiers

Traditional resort markets such as Florida’s Marco Island, Honolulu and Arizona’s Paradise Valley are showing promise for an increasingly mobile generation of ultra high net worth individuals. The stories of “live anywhere” buyers highlight a key shift happening at the high-end: real estate wealth is expanding beyond metropolises like New York and Los Angeles.

Signed Contracts to Buy US Homes Rise to 18-Month High

Jeffrey Payne — Sun, 01 Mar 2015 00:50:19 +0000

By: ABC News

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The number of Americans signing contracts to buy homes rose at a healthy pace in January, a sign that home sales are poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year.

The National Association of Realtors said Friday that its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index increased 1.7 percent to 104.2 last month. December’s figure was also revised higher to show a decline of only 1.5 percent, considerably better than a previously estimated drop of 3.7 percent.

The index is now 8.4 percent above its level one year ago and is at the highest level since August 2013.

The data point to a rebound in sales of existing homes in the coming months, particularly as the spring buying season gets underway. Measures of sales and construction fell last month, raising concerns that the housing market would continue to struggle after a weak 2014. But economists expect that strong job gains, low mortgage rates and solid consumer confidence will give a moderate boost to home sales this year.

“Through the volatility, the trend in home sales is probably up modestly at least,” Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a note to clients.

Pending sales are a barometer of future purchases. A one- to two-month lag usually exists between a contract and a completed sale.

The largest increase in signed contracts occurred in the South, where they rose 3.2 percent, followed by the West, where sales rose 2.2 percent. Contract signings inched up just 0.1 percent in the Northeast, where heavy snow may have weighed on housing. Pending homes sales slipped 0.7 percent in the Midwest.

The increase in signed contracts comes after some disappointing data at the start of the year. Sales of existing homes tumbled 4.9 percent in January to a nine-month low, while sales of new homes slipped 0.2 percent. And new construction of homes and apartments fell 2 percent in January.

But healthy hiring should encourage more Americans to start looking at homes. There are 3.2 million more Americans earning paychecks than there were 12 months ago. And younger Americans are finally seeing strong job gains, which could push up the number of first-time homebuyers, a critical ingredient in any housing recovery.

Mortgage rates remain near historic lows. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.76 percent last week, according to the mortgage giant Freddie Mac. That has ticked up in recent weeks, but is well below the 4.33 percent average from a year ago.

January Home sales and Price report

Jeffrey Payne — Sun, 01 Mar 2015 00:47:39 +0000

By: California Association of Realtors

California’s housing market started the new year still bearing the scars of 2014’s tight housing inventory and low housing affordability as statewide home sales fell from the previous month and year, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 351,890 units in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. Sales in January were down 3.9 percent from a revised 366,130 in December and down 2.7 percent from a revised 361,790 in January 2014. Home sales have been below the 400,000 level since November 2013. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2015 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“Despite a leveling off of home prices and continued decline in interest rates in recent months, California’s housing market continues to be constrained by low housing affordability, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area,” said C.A.R. President Chris Kutzkey. “Due to the region’s strong income and job growth, the Bay Area was the least affected by the housing crisis. But strong housing demand and tight supply in the region also have caused home prices to appreciate at a faster rate than many regions in California, leading to a slide in housing affordability in the area, which in turn, has resulted in a more pronounced slowdown in market activity in recent months.”

The median price of an existing, single-family detached California home fell 5.9 percent from December’s median price of $453,780 to $426,790 in January but was up 3.4 percent from the revised $412,820 recorded in January 2014. The statewide median home price has been higher on a year-over-year basis for more than two years, but price gains have narrowed significantly in the past year. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values.

“While the statewide unsold inventory index in January jumped to the highest level in nearly three years, the increase can be attributed in large part due to the drop in sales,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Overall, active listings statewide showed a near double-digit increase from last January, but supply conditions weren’t all positive at the regional level. While both the Southern California and Central Valley regions showed a clear improvement in their inventory levels when compared to last year, housing supply in the Bay Area remains a concern as active listings declined more than 5 percent in the region, further illustrating the region’s lack of affordable homes for sale.”

Other key facts from C.A.R.’s January 2015 resale housing report include:

• Housing inventory loosened throughout much of the state in January, though the San Francisco Bay area continued to be hamstrung by tight inventory. The available supply of existing, single-family detached homes for sale statewide rose from 3.3 months in December to 5 months in January. The index was 4.3 months in January 2014. The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. A six- to seven-month supply is considered typical in a normal market.

• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was extended in January, up from a revised 47.5 days in December to 52.4 days in January and from 44.3 days in January 2014.

• According to C.A.R.’s newest housing market indicator measuring sales-to-list price ratio*, properties are again generally selling below the list price, except in the San Francisco Bay Area, where a lack of homes for sale is keeping sales prices in line with original asking prices. The statewide measure suggests that homes are selling at a median of 96.9 percent of the list price, down slightly from a ratio of 97.8 percent at the same time last year. The Bay Area is the only region where homes are selling at original list prices.

• The average California price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $203 in January 2015, a decrease of 3.5 percent from the previous month, but a 2.7 percent increase from January 2014. Price per square foot at the state level has been showing an upward trend since early 2012, and has been rising on a year-over-year basis for 36 consecutive months. In recent months, however, the growth rate in price per square foot has slowed down significantly as home prices leveled off. San Mateo County had the highest price per square foot in January with $622/sq. ft., followed by Santa Clara ($508/sq. ft.), and Santa Cruz ($420/sq. ft.). The three counties with the lowest price per square foot in January were Lake ($111/sq. ft.), Siskiyou ($110/sq. ft.), and Yuba ($107/sq. ft.).

• Mortgage rates fell again in January, with the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 3.67 percent, down from 3.86 percent in December and down from 4.43 percent in January 2014, according to Freddie Mac. The January 2014 average 30-year fixed rate was the lowest since May 2013, just before the Federal Reserve announced its intention to taper the bond buying program. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates also dipped in January, averaging 2.38 percent, down from 2.40 percent in December and down from 2.55 percent in January 2014.

Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. Due to the low sales volume in some areas, median price changes in January exhibit unusual fluctuation. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 33 counties.

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Housing Market Enters 2015 Facing Affordability Pressures

Jeffrey Payne — Fri, 02 Jan 2015 23:23:55 +0000

The housing recovery slowed during 2014 and shows few signs of breaking out or slowing sharply during the new year. Here, a house hunt plays out in Mackinaw, Ill., last year. Bloomberg News

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By NICK TIMIRAOS, WSJ, Jan. 1, 2015 1:34 p.m. ET

The U.S. housing market failed to provide the lift to the economy over the past year that many analysts expected. It enters a new year with few signs pointing to either a renewed breakout or a sharp slowdown.

New data released this week showed that contracts signed to buy previously owned homes rose to the third-highest level of the past year, the latest sign of how housing demand firmed up in 2014 after a sluggish start.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that its index measuring pending home sales in November, reflecting sales that have gone into contract but haven’t yet closed, rose 0.8% from October and 4.1% from a year earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. That represents the largest year-over-year gain for the index since August 2013.

But as a whole, the housing market fell short of expectations amid tepid demand, rising prices and continued complaints from buyers about the quality of inventory. “The market overpriced itself this year, and buyers are very price sensitive right now,” said Glenn Kelman, chief executive of real-estate brokerage Redfin.

Nela Richardson, the firm’s chief economist, said they expect the market to be less competitive this year. “Homes that had four offers now have one,” she said, although there is still “a lot of price pressure in a really small number of neighborhoods.”

After a two-year rebound, housing demand faltered halfway through 2013 amid inventory shortages, rising prices and a sudden increase in mortgage rates. Demand stayed soft in early 2014, during a particularly cold winter, but improved in the summer, a period during which mortgage rates floated down.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 3.87% for the week ended Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac, near its lowest level of the past year.

Sales of previously owned homes are running around 4% below the year-earlier level through the first 11 months of 2014. Still, sales climbed throughout the middle of the past year, from a 4.59 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in March to 5.25 million in October. They slid 6% in November to a 4.93 million rate, according to the National Association of Realtors.

News Corp, owner of The Wall Street Journal, also owns Move Inc., which operates a website and mobile products for the National Association of Realtors.

Interactive

ENLARGE

Sales of new homes have been essentially unchanged over the past year, falling far short of economists’ expectations for double-digit gains in new home sales. That’s happened in part because builders have focused on constructing larger, more expensive homes.

Broad sales measures don’t fully capture other dimensions the housing market’s recovery. In particular, the share of homes selling out of foreclosure accounted for as many as a third of home sales in 2012. The share of distressed sales has fallen sharply, to around 9% in recent months. The upshot is that traditional sales now account for a far larger share of the market—a sign of improvement.

Home prices tell a similar story. After falling nearly one-third from their peak in 2006, prices began rebounding sharply in February 2012 and since then have risen nearly 25% through October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index.

Some of the price declines were exacerbated by a glut of foreclosures. The subsequent rebound reflected increased investor demand for those bargain-priced properties, most of which were either quickly repaired and flipped for a profit or held off the market as rentals.

As foreclosures have faded and investor-purchasers stepped back from the market, price gains have slowed. In October, home prices had increased 4.6% from their year-earlier level, compared to a year-over-year gain of 10.9% in October 2013.

An open question in the coming year is whether price gains stabilize at those lower levels or whether they weaken further. Research firm Zelman & Associates expects price gains of 4% in 2015 and 3% in 2016.

But some market specialists say prices may need to give if sales are to rise. “In a few markets, there will be price declines,” Mr. Kelman said, “and maybe in more than a few.”

In expensive markets such as Southern California, “we have an affordability problem again,” said John Burns, chief executive of a home-builder consulting firm in Irvine, Calif. “The market is flat.”

U.S. Renters Paid $441 Billion in Rent in 2014, Up Nearly $21 Billion Since 2013

Jeffrey Payne — Fri, 02 Jan 2015 23:02:49 +0000

Total Rent Paid By The Largest 25 Metros Covered by Zillow*
Metro	Cumulative 2013 Rent	Cumulative 2014 Rent	Percent Change 2013-2014	Monthly Payment Change 2013-2014iii
United States	$420.4 billion	$441 billion	4.9%	$26
New York-Northern New Jersey	$48.2 billion	$50 billion	3.6%	$20
Los Angeles	$32.5 billion	$34.2 billion	5.3%	$42
Chicago	$13.4 billion	$14.3 billion	7.4%	$50
Dallas-Fort Worth	$9.4 billion	$10 billion	6.2%	$35
Philadelphia	$7.8 billion	$8.1 billion	4.4%	$23
Houston	$8.2 billion	$8.8 billion	7.2%	$43
Washington, DC	$13.1 billion	$13.4 billion	2.1%	$2
Miami-Fort Lauderdale	$9.7 billion	$10.5 billion	7.7%	$59
Atlanta	$6.8 billion	$7.2 billion	5.7%	$30
Boston	$9.2 billion	$9.8 billion	6.9%	$58
San Francisco	$12.8 billion	$14.6 billion	13.5%	$163
Detroit	$4.3 billion	$4.5 billion	4.6%	$20
Riverside, Calif.	$5.9 billion	$6.2 billion	4.4%	$26
Phoenix	$5.9 billion	$6.2 billion	6.0%	$34
Seattle	$7.1 billion	$7.8 billion	8.6%	$71
Minneapolis-St Paul	$4.3 billion	$4.5 billion	4.8%	$25
San Diego	$7.9 billion	$8.3 billion	6.1%	$55
St. Louis	$2.7 billion	$2.8 billion	3.3%	$10
Tampa, Fla.	$4.1 billion	$4.3 billion	4.9%	$24
Baltimore	$4.2 billion	$4.3 billion	3.0%	$9
Denver	$4.4 billion	$4.9 billion	10.8%	$86
Pittsburgh	$2.2 billion	$2.4 billion	10.6%	$56
Portland, Ore.	$3.9 billion	$4.1 billion	7.1%	$46
Sacramento, Calif.	$3.8 billion	$4.0 billion	5.2%	$33
San Antonio	$2.6 billion	$2.8 billion	5.5%	$25

SEATTLE, Dec. 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — Americans shelled out $20.6 billion more in rent in 2014 compared to 2013. Cumulatively, U.S. renters paid $441 billion in rent in 2014 compared to $420 billion last year, an increase of nearly five percent (4.9 percent), as both the number of renting households and the average rent rose nationally, according to a Zillow rentals analysisi.

Locally, the Bay Area, consisting of the San Jose and San Francisco metros, saw the largest jump in cumulative rent paid in 2014, up 14.4 and 13.5 percent respectively. Rent per household in the San Jose, Calif. metro rose by $197 per month, while rent in the San Francisco metro rose by $163 per month.

Out of the top 50 largest U.S. metro areas, the largest amount of cumulative rent was paid the New York-Northern New Jersey ($50 billion) and Los Angeles ($34 billion) metros. The smallest amount of cumulative rent was paid by renters in Birmingham, Ala. ($1 billion), Louisville, Ky. ($1.2 billion) and Buffalo, N.Y. ($1.2 billion).

Nationally, the total number of renters is estimated to have grown 1.9 percent in 2014ii. Over the same time period, the median rent paid increased 2.9 percent.

“Over the past fourteen years, rents have grown at twice the pace of income due to weak income growth, burgeoning rental demand, and insufficient growth in the supply of rental housing. This has created real opportunities for rental housing owners and investors, but has also been a bitter pill to swallow for tenants, particularly those on an entry-level salary and those would-be buyers struggling to save for a down payment on a home of their own,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. “Next year, we expect rents to rise even faster than home values, meaning that another increase in total rent paid similar to that seen this year isn’t out of the question. In fact, it’s probable.”

About Zillow:

Zillow, Inc. Z, +1.77% operates the largest home-related marketplaces on mobile and the Web, with a complementary portfolio of brands and products that help people find vital information about homes, and connect with the best local professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow’s Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. The Zillow, Inc. portfolio includes Zillow.com®, Zillow Mobile, Zillow Mortgages, Zillow Rentals, Zillow Digs®, Postlets®, Diverse Solutions®, Mortech®, HotPads™, StreetEasy® and Retsly™. The company is headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow.com, Zillow, Postlets, Mortech, Diverse Solutions, StreetEasy and Digs are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc. HotPads and Retsly are a trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

i Total rent paid is calculated by first estimating the number of renter households in 2014 in each metro based on 2013 metro-level data and 2014 national data. We then take the sum of all the monthly Zillow Rent Indices in 2014 and multiply it by the estimated number of households. Forecasting was used to calculate value change during December 2014. Lastly, results are then scaled by a rental stock adjustment factor which controls for differences in the footprint between the rental stock and the total housing stock.
ii Zillow based this analysis in part on data available at the local and national level from the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS). Full local and national data was available on number of renters from the ACS for 2013, but was unavailable for 2014 at the time this analysis was conducted. Zillow used the 2014 CPS to determine overall growth in number of renters between 2013 and 2014, but this data was only available on the national level. For purposes of this analysis, we assumed the total number of renters in each local market grew at the same pace as the nation as a whole, or 1.9 percent year-over-year.
iii Monthly payment change per household accounts for additional renter households added in 2014.

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America’s Housing Stock Increases $1.7 Trillion

Jeffrey Payne — Fri, 02 Jan 2015 22:20:53 +0000

The housing market received both good and bad news as of late; the good news is that America’s housing stock is now worth $27.5 trillion, an increase of $1.7 trillion over last year. The bad news is that U.S. home values rose 6 percent year-over-year through November, the smallest annual gain since June 2013, according to Zillow’s Stan Humphries.

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The aggregate value of all homes nationwide is expected to be approximately $27.5 trillion by year’s end, up more than $1.7 trillion (6.7 percent) year-over-year and the third consecutive annual increase. It is a testament to just how huge and important the housing sector is to the overall economy that gains of more than a trillion dollars in one year represents only single-digit percentages of the total market. Humphries says.

Still, as massive as the current overall value of housing is in the U.S., the aggregate value of all homes remains 6.1 percent below the Q3 2006 peak of almost $29.3 trillion. This makes sense, as the median home value nationwide is still down almost 10 percent from its pre-recession high.

But just as median home values in several local markets across the country – including Denver, Pittsburgh and a handful of Texas metros – have exceeded their prior peaks, so too have aggregate home values in a few large markets. In nine of 35 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, the total value of all homes in the area is at or above prior peak. Many of the same areas where median home values are above peak are also the same as where aggregate values are at peak, including Denver and a collection of Texas markets (Dallas, Houston and Austin).

Although home values to continue to grow, they are rising much more slowly than earlier in the year, currently at a pace last seen in mid-2013. Over the next 12 months, from November 2014 to November 2015, home values are predicted to rise 2.4 percent, to slightly less than $182,000.

Slowing home value appreciation has been driven in large part by more for-sale inventory coming on line in recent months, which is helping to bring the supply of homes in line with demand. This has been welcome news for buyers that were previously competing with each other and with cash-rich investors for a very limited number of homes. However, inventory has been drifting downward on a monthly basis for the past two months.

Home Values

The November Zillow Real Estate Market Reports cover 522 metropolitan and micropolitan areas. In November, 392 (75 percent) of the 522 markets showed monthly home value appreciation, and 434 (83 percent) saw annual home value appreciation. Among the 35 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, 34 experienced annual home value appreciation. Overall, national home values remain 9.6 percent below the market’s April 2007 peak.

Areas with the largest annual gains in home values in November included Miami (13.6 percent), Atlanta (12.8 percent), Houston (11.9 percent), Orlando (11.9 percent) and Las Vegas (11.5 percent).

Currently, U.S. rents are up 3.4 percent year-over-year, according to the Zillow Rent Index (ZRI), which covers 864 metropolitan and micropolitan areas and the nation as a whole. Rents rose year-over-year in 654 markets (75.7 percent). Large markets that saw extremely strong annual rent appreciation include San Francisco (15.5 percent), San Jose (15.2 percent), Denver (10.1 percent), Kansas City (8.3 percent) and Austin (7.7 percent).

As rents continue to rise, rental affordability will continue to suffer. In the third quarter, renters making the national median income could expect to pay 29.9 percent of their monthly income to rent the typical U.S. property, well above the 24.9 percent they would have paid in the pre-bubble period from 1985-1999. Continuously rising rents nationwide could drive more people into the home-buying market, attracted by stable monthly payments and cheap financing because of low mortgage rates, but they also make it more difficult for potential first-time buyers (and current renters) to save for a down payment.

In general, national for-sale inventory levels remain below peak levels, though they have been higher in 2014 compared to 2013. In November, U.S. inventory of for-sale homes grew year-over-year by 11.8 percent. Inventory rose on an annual basis in 464 of 641 metro areas (72 percent). But inventory has drifted downwards on a monthly basis for the last two months, falling 1.7 percent nationwide in November from October.

Of the largest 35 metro areas covered by Zillow, 25 of 35 saw annual gains in for-sale inventory, while 30 of 35 saw monthly declines. In 20 of the largest 35 metro areas, inventory both rose annually and fell on a monthly basis. The metro areas seeing the largest annual changes in inventory were Riverside (42.6 percent), Orlando (40.2 percent), Sacramento (37.4 percent), Washington (35.4 percent) and San Diego (33.2 percent). Areas with the largest monthly declines in inventory were San Jose (down 11.8 percent), Denver (down 9.8 percent), San Francisco (down 7.9 percent) and Seattle (down 5.5 percent).

Foreclosures

The rate of homes foreclosed continued to decline in November, with 4.2 out of every 10,000 homes in the country being liquidated. This number is down from 5.2 homes one year ago. Nationally, foreclosure re-sales rose slightly, making up 8 percent of all sales in November, compared to 7.6 percent in October and 7.4 percent in November 2013. We expect the percentage of foreclosure re-sales to continue to increase slightly throughout the winter months, mainly due to overall seasonal declines in inventory.

Outlook

The housing market continues to recover and home values are predicted to continue to rise, but at a slower pace. Our forecast calls for another 2.4 percent appreciation from November 2014 to November 2015 for the nation, less than half the appreciation rate seen between November 2013 and November 2014.

This slower pace will help bring more balance to the market, as more previously sidelined sellers decide to list their homes, and more buyers enter the market – particularly younger buyers. These buyers will find themselves with more leverage in the market, after years in which sellers largely held the upper hand in negotiations.

Out of the 35 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, we expect to see home values rise the most in Riverside (6.2 percent), Las Vegas (5.9 percent), Dallas (5.1 percent) and Seattle (5.0 percent). Both Las Vegas and Riverside are still over 30 percent down from peak home values, and have lots of room for home values to grow. Dallas is currently the most expensive it has ever been (nominally), while Seattle home values are down 11 percent from their August 2007 peak.

Fed’s ‘Patience’ on an Interest Rate Increase Has Its Limits

Jeffrey Payne — Tue, 23 Dec 2014 18:36:16 +0000

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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen restored clarity to the central bank’s monetary policy plans, saying it was on course to raise interest rates, though not right away, after officials issued a statement that some Fed-watchers found confusing.

Yellen told reporters following a two-day meeting yesterday that the Fed is likely to hold rates near zero at least through the first quarter. She also laid out the economic parameters that would need to be met for liftoff to begin later in the year and said that rates probably would be raised gradually thereafter. They may not return to more normal levels until 2017, she added.

“The statement was a bit clumsy, while I thought Yellen was very clear,” said Eric Green, head of U.S. rates and economic research at TD Securities USA in New York, who formerly worked at the New York Fed. “The second half of the year we are getting higher rates and the market has to price that in.”

Forward Guidance

The dollar and yields on Treasury securities rose in response, as investors in those markets processed the likelihood of rate increases by the Fed. The greenback gained against most currencies, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increasing to almost a five-year high. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose eight basis points to 2.14 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Trader data.

FOMC’s Straddle

Yellen’s comments came after a Federal Open Market Committee statement that former Fed official Robert Eisenbeis also called “clumsy.” With investors focused on whether policy makers would retain their stated intention to hold rates near zero for a “considerable time,” the FOMC instead tried to straddle keeping the phrase in and taking it out.

The Fed said it can be “patient” in its approach to raising the benchmark lending rate from a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008. At the same time, policy makers said that language was “consistent” with their prior guidance that rates would be held near zero for a “considerable time” after they ended their asset purchases in October.

“The statement was muddled,” said Eisenbeis, who is now vice chairman and chief monetary economist for Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Florida.

The reluctance to drop the previous language completely reflects the difficulty the committee is having in moving away from giving time-based guidance on rates and toward letting economic statistics speak for themselves.

Slow-Playing

“They were worried that if they dropped ‘considerable time’ that markets would think rate hikes were imminent,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. “What they are doing here is slow-playing the transition.”

The Fed meeting took place after a series of government reports showing that the U.S. economy is thriving. Payrolls rose by 321,000 last month, the biggest increase in almost three years, while retail sales increased 0.7 percent, the most in eight months. The reports suggest the U.S. is powering through a global slowdown that has seen Japan fall back into recession and that helped trigger a currency crisis in Russia.

The FOMC statement made no reference to the Russian turmoil or other global risks that have roiled financial markets. Yellen said officials discussed Russia at this week’s policy meeting and agreed it would have little impact on the U.S.

Russian Exposure

“U.S. banks’ exposure to Russian residents is really quite small in terms of relative to their capital,” Yellen said. “In terms of the portfolios of U.S. residents, there are Russian securities, but they account for a very small share.”

The Fed chief used her hour-long press conference to fill in some of the details on what the Fed intends to do with interest rates in 2015 and beyond.

“The statement that the committee can be patient should be interpreted as meaning that it is unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings,” which take place in January and March, she said.

She also described what economic conditions the Fed is looking for in deciding whether to begin raising interest rates for the first time since 2006.

“By the time of liftoff, participants expect to see some further decline in the unemployment rate and additional improvement in labor-market conditions,” Yellen said. “They also expect core inflation to be running near current levels” and want to be “reasonably confident” that overall inflation will rise back toward their 2 percent goal “over time.”

As measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, inflation stood at 1.4 percent in October, according to data issued by the Commerce Department in Washington. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, was 1.6 percent.

Transitory Impact

Yellen said policy makers expect inflation to ebb in coming months as the steep fall in oil prices feeds into gasoline and other products that consumers buy. That impact probably will be transitory, she said. She also played down the significance of a decline in inflation expectations as measured by trading in the Treasury debt market.

Most officials still see the first rate increase taking place next year, according to quarterly forecasts released after their meeting. At the same time, the forecasts show central bankers expect rates to rise more slowly over the next three years than previously anticipated, even as the jobless rate falls in 2015 to the level they consider full employment.

The benchmark rate will be 1.125 percent at the end of next year, compared with a 1.375 percent median estimate in September, according to the forecasts. The rate will be 2.5 percent at the end of 2016, and 3.625 percent at the end of 2017, according to the median.

Long Time

“Monetary policy will still be very accommodative for a long time” after rates begin to rise, Yellen said.

She said the committee would like to see “a short period of a very slight undershoot” of its maximum employment goal, so unemployment gets low enough to drive up wages and prices.

“Historically, we have seen as the economy strengthens and slack diminishes, that inflation does tend to gradually rise over time,” Yellen said. “I will be looking for evidence that I think strengthens my confidence in that view.”

The unemployment rate will average 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent in the final quarter of 2015, according to the Fed’s central tendency forecast. Full employment is pegged at 5.2 percent to 5.5 percent. Joblessness in November was 5.8 percent.

Three Fed presidents dissented from the FOMC statement: Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis, Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher of Dallas. Kocherlakota said the decision “created undue downside risk to the credibility of the 2 percent inflation target.”

Plosser said the statement shouldn’t say the new forward guidance is consistent with the previous statement, and Fisher said the improvement in the economy has moved forward the date when it will be appropriate to raise rates.

Yellen wasn’t fazed by the dissents.

“At a time like this where we are making consequential decisions, I think it’s very reasonable to see divergences of opinion,” she said.

’’There is tension between the hawks and doves that’s growing,’’ said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. “Yellen was trying to get the middle road between the two.”

“But the big picture remains the same,” he added. “They want to tighten next year, but there is no rush to hike rates.”

Biggest Price Drop in Six Years Lifts U.S. Consumers: Economy

Jeffrey Payne — Tue, 23 Dec 2014 18:30:08 +0000

By Shobhana Chandra

Prices paid by American consumers dropped in November by the most in almost six years, providing a boost to buying power that will propel economic growth.

The cost of living fell 0.3 percent, the most since December 2008, after being little changed the prior month, according to Labor Department figures issued today in Washington. The retreat was led by a plunge in fuel that is continuing to unfold.

The cheapest gasoline since 2009 and a strengthening job market lifted weekly paychecks in November by the most in six years, one reason why companies such as Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) are enjoying a cheerful holiday season. A stronger economy combined with inflation that is lower than the Federal Reserve intends represents a challenge for policy makers who are trying to determine whether and when to raise interest rates.

“The consumer is getting a well-deserved break,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh, who is among the most accurate CPI forecasters over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We’re seeing a little more wage growth, more jobs, better confidence and finally a price break at the pump. It adds up to a very strong holiday season.”

Stocks rose as energy shares rebounded a second day and investors speculated Fed policy will continue to support economic growth. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.9 percent to 1,989.95 at 11:22 a.m. in New York.
Annual Gain
Consumer prices rose 1.3 percent over the past year, the smallest gain since February and down from a 1.7 percent annual advance the prior month, according to the Labor Department.

The median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected the CPI index would drop 0.1 percent. Estimates ranged from little change to a 0.3 percent decrease.

Energy costs decreased 3.8 percent from a month earlier, led by a 6.6 percent plunge in gasoline that was the biggest drop since December 2008. Food prices rose 0.2 percent.

Excluding volatile food and fuel, the so-called core measure rose 0.1 percent in November, bringing the advance over the past year down to 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent in October. The gain matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and followed a 0.2 percent increase the prior month.

Rising rents, medical care and airline fares were almost completely offset by the biggest drop in clothing costs in 16 years and the largest fall in prices for used cars and trucks since September 2012.

Fuel Bills
Households’ fuel bills continue to fall this month. The average cost of regular gasoline at the pump dropped to $2.51 a gallon on Dec. 16, the cheapest since 2009 and down from this year’s high of $3.70 reached in April, according to AAA, the biggest U.S. auto group.

Those lower prices mean Americans can spend more elsewhere. Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November, the most in eight months, as consumers snapped up electronics, clothing and furniture, Commerce Department figures showed. Industry data also indicate demand for vehicles remains robust.

The decline in the cost of living helped boost paychecks. Hourly earnings adjusted for inflation rose 0.6 percent on average after a 0.1 percent increase the prior month, a separate report from the Labor Department showed. On a weekly basis, they were up 0.9 percent, the biggest advance since November 2008.

Some of the nation’s trading partners are also seeing improvement. U.K. unemployment fell in the three months through October and basic pay grew faster than inflation for the first time since 2009, data showed in London today.

Air Fares
Atlanta-based Delta is among companies benefiting from both the drop in fuel costs and gains in spending.
“We continue to price to demand,” Edward Bastian, the carrier’s president, said in a Dec. 11 teleconference with investors. “Demand is very solid.”

That means that the airline will “be able to secure as much if not all of that fuel savings directly to the bottom line for 2015,” he said. Delta’s shares were up 65 percent so far this year through yesterday.
The Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is issued by the Commerce Department and is linked to consumer spending, rose 1.4 percent in October compared with the same month last year and hasn’t been above the central bank’s 2 percent goal since March 2012.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues, weighing when to raise rates, are likely to focus on a jobless rate that’s fast approaching their goal for full employment, even as declining oil prices hold inflation below their target, economists said.

Fed Meeting
Policy makers, at their meeting yesterday and today, will look past low inflation and drop a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” as the Fed seeks an exit from the loosest monetary policy in its 100-year history, analysts said. The Federal Open Market Committee will adopt a word such as “patient” to describe its approach to policy, according to 68 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“Yellen has the support of strengthening real economic activity behind her to transition to a more flexible stance,” said Laura Rosner, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York and a former New York Fed researcher. “Yet the inflation data remain soft and require continued emphasis that the Fed will take a patient approach, that rate hikes aren’t imminent.”

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